Thursday, March 13, 2008

Looking at past drafts

jonkiley's post got me thinking about the Amateur Draft and my picks through the first 3 seasons here in the Wonderful World of Guinness. So, I thought I'd create a post about my drafts in hopes of starting a little discussion.

Season 1

I lost a Type A and a Type B FA before the season so I had 2 supplemental picks and 2 second rounders. With 5 picks in the top 72 overall I made sure to do my homework and I think it's turning out well. My first two picks were 18 year old starting pitchers who have followed each other up through the ranks. The 21st overall pick was
Richie Fordham
Tucson
Two Baggers
Age: 21B/T: L/L
Born: North Hollywood, CA
Position(s): P (T4A)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

His partner in crime, so to speak, was the 42nd pick
Ugueth Mendez
Tucson
Two Baggers
Age: 21B/T: R/R
Born: Mabank, TX
Position(s): P (T3B)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

They've been solid in the low minors and I've moved them up slowly. My philosophy with HS players is to give them a full season at LoA and HiA after playing Rookie Ball post draft. If they're within 10 points of their overall projection I'll have them start the season at AA then promote to AAA at mid-season. If they haven't come close enough to their projections yet, I can still move them up one level at a time to maximize their potential. When a prospect repeats a level you run the risk of having their growth stall. My next pick was at number 50 and the player was
Stephen Lowry
Tucson
Two Baggers
Age: 21B/T: R/R
Born: Pahrump, NV
Position(s): SS
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He will spend the full season at AA. As an 18 year old SS he's not developing as fast as the pitchers did. He should hit righties well enough to play every day, as long as his defense gets to projected levels. Now my next 2 picks, both second rounders, are in the Bigs this season.
Bill Lane
Tucson
Two Baggers
Age: 22B/T: L/R
Born: Baltimore, MD
Position(s): 2B/1B/COF/DH
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AND
Clay Ward
Tucson
Two Baggers
Age: 21B/T: R/R
Born: Park Forest, IL
Position(s): C/DH
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I think you guys must have been asleep on Ward. He projects to be a passable Catcher and has one heckuva bat. Lane is also very good with the stick, but his defense doesn't project to be a 2B so he'll get moved to a COF. I feel like I've rushed them both a bit, but I lost some offense after season 2 and needed to get them up as quick as I could. I need them to contribute if I'm going to get back to the playoffs this season.

Season 2

Didn't do so good here. My first pick was wasted on a JC LF named Ahmad Bell who did not sign. So my only selection in the top 100 was at #72
Ivan Baxter
Tucson
Two Baggers
Age: 20B/T: L/L
Born: Newberry, SC
Position(s): CF
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Baxter projects as a solid CF with good speed. IF he starts in the majors, it will be in CF and he'll hit 9th. I'll be happier with him as a defensive replacement and pinch runner on my bench.

Season 3

Five more picks in the top 100 thanks to losing a Type A FA and the supplemental pick from my first rounder not signing in season 2. I went with a HS SP named Ed Sellers. He didn't sign. (can you guess who will be going 'Very Conservative' with signability in this season's draft?) My first pick that did sign was
Pedro Arias
Tucson
Two Baggers
Age: 19B/T: R/R
Born: Rochester, WA
Position(s): 3B/1B/COF/DH
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Arias should be a solid 3B and it will be interesting to see how he develops. I'll be moving him up slowly. My other sup pick was
Turner Weaver
Tucson
Two Baggers
Age: 20B/T: R/R
Born: Mcmechen, WV
Position(s): 2B/CIF/OF/DH
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Weaver will be a very good offensive player in Tuscon and will probably get a mid-season promotion since he was 19 when drafted. My older players won't spend a full season at either LoA or HiA. In the second round I took
Benito Palmeiro
Tucson
Two Baggers
Age: 19B/T: L/L
Born: Camp Hill, PA
Position(s): RF
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Benito should hit for a high average and will find his way to my ML roster. He was a HS player so I'll move him up slowly. My other 2nd round pick was
Barry Bennett
Tucson
Two Baggers
Age: 21B/T: R/R
Born: Hendersonville, NC
Position(s): P (ClA)
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Bennett will be a very good ML Relief Pitcher. As a JC player I'll bump him from LoA to HiA at mid-season.

Looking back at my drafts I seem to draft heavy on High School players and I don't take signability serious enough. I do, however, seem to get good balance in hitting and pitching. I'll adjust a few settings to try and sign all of my picks. And, just like jonkiley, I'll be hoping for a deep draft since I only have 3 picks in the first 2 rounds this season.

Did you read anything useful? Is anyone still reading? Hit the comments and talk about the draft!

1 comment:

bierkieser said...

I don't know why the links don't work... I had to have copied them right or they wouldn't have been right in the post... hmmm